AP Political Analysis 2014

Let’s start party wise: Congress (I): If you ask a regular citizen in AP, “what is the ruling government in your state?”, most probably you might get a blank on their face. Congress has more enemies internally in the party than outside the party. From the present state of affairs, seems more “unlikely” that Congress would retain power in the state in 2014. Most of the aspiring candidates for MLA tickets, if denied, would either dent the chances of their own party candidate or follow the lead to YSR Congress. Not much to say here. YSR Congress: The more the leaders from other parties are joining YSR Congress, the tougher it gets for the candidate selection(s). Every other leader joining the party is with the expectation that they would be given MLA/MP ticket. The denied candidates might as well work against the interest of the party. That said, almost most of the constituencies in AP has at least 15000-20000 hardcore YSR supporters who have benefitted from his schemes and would be loyal to the party. If YSR Congress manages to build the bridge between these votes and the incoming flock of leaders from other parties, it does stand a good possibility to win more seats. Jagan, as we all know is a ‘master mind’ and even though the allegations of corruption are on him, people are more inclined to what he might be doing if elected to power. Youth and women are his backbone. Jagan immensely laid the foundation for “connect to masses” factor and as a matter of fact is successful too. TDP: CBN is a shrewd and composed administrator and politician. He precisely knows there are 2 more years for election and any momentum he generates now would be waste of time and energy as people would forget in the long run, which he might have learned from his own 9 years in power. The long term strategy he seems to employ is, announcement of 70+ candidates way before the 2014 elections and also the 100 seat reservation for BC’s. There is a good possibility that TDP might announce a pro Telangana stand with Hyderabad being common capital. If Naidu can make his flock of leaders stick to him for the next 1.5-2 years he actually has a good chance of winning seats. The main factors that would help TDP are anti incumbency factor of Congress and “ticket aspiring” leaders in YSR. Of course TDP has more dents from TRS and Lok Satta as the traditional TDP vote is being divided by these two parties in Telangana and urban areas. TRS: From the present state of circumstances, TRS holds very well in Telangana region as the people are now convinced only TRS is the party with potential to make the likelihood of Telangana state a possibility. Out of the 120+ seats TRS has very bright prospects of securing the seats. Unless TDP comes up with pro Telangana stand and unless BJP gathers momentum at the grass roots, TRS seems to be unprecedented. BJP: Lost pretty much the cadre in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. Party is betting mostly on Telangana plank. The recent Mahabubnagar re-election win almost made it look like the only party in Telangana that would challenge TRS supremacy. Even the most recent statements from National leaders about Telangana being the prominent issue once voted to power seems like a long term strategy in securing as much seats as possible. Pro Hindutva image might hurt due in some Muslim dominated areas of Telangana, which would actually marginalize people and AIMIM might contest the same seats in those areas to branch out of Hyderabad. AIMIM: Because of its stand on anti Telangana, it might actually find supporters in and around Greater Hyderabad other than its core voter base. Might expand the numbers from 7 in present assembly. Lok Satta: “All is Well”, seems like all is well but no one knows how to make people understand it. Ask anyone about Lok Satta Party, most of them would answer it’s a great party and “I Like it’s ideology”, but ask the same person would you vote for it, the answer might not be as favorable!! It might increase the vote “share” from 2009 elections but due to lack of charismatic leaders other than JP, the connect with ‘aam jaanta’ might be difficult. That said, these are personal opinions and observations. No inclination towards any party or person. Sincerely Suresh Matta USA

What Next: Andhra Pradesh after YSR. (2:10 pm EST 9/2/2009)

What Next: AP after YSR.

I sincerely regret to even speculate at this time (2.08pm 9/2/2009 EST) that our beloved leader Y.S.RajaSekhar Reddy is dead.
In the event of YSR’s death, I am outlining what it may hold to Andhra Pradesh politics.

Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, son of YSR, would be offered the Chief Minister seat. It would be difficult time for Y.S.Jagan to cope up with his father’s untimely death and run the government effectively. But taking into consideration his vast experience in managing newspapers, media outlets and government officials he will certainly raise to the occasion and perform well over expectations.

The other option would be Y.S. Vivekananda Reddy, which is very nominal as he soft spoken and doesn’t necessarily have the charisma to manage disgruntled Congress factions.

The other prominent leaders who might emerge from National politics to handle the crisis in the unfortunate event would be Mr.Jaipal Reddy who has been a viable candidate for long time. He might be the first option for Congress Central coterie, taking into account his vast political experience and command on state leaders. Dr.Rosaiah would also be a candidate, but his ability to manage individual Congress leaders in limited. Dr.Subbi Rami Reddy might be considered, but again his influence on state leaders is limited even though he has huge respect and credibility in Congress circles.

On the other hand "Raja Guru" of TDP might come up with a strategy in which, TDP with its over 90 MLA’s might come up with an offer to support any person from Congress who would divide Congress party MLA’s to form the Government. That way Congress can be divided which would eventually lead to mid term polls.
PRP might as well try to or even offer the same strategy to either support a person from Congress who would divide the party.

Let us all pray for our leader’s safety at this moment.

Jai Hind.